Tomorrow night, the #2 University of Florida Gators take on the #1 Buckeyes of the Ohio State University in Glendale, Arizona in the Tostitos Bowl Championship Series National Championship game. It is certainly tough to imagine this game living up to the Fiesta Bowl from a week ago (if you haven’t heard about the Boise State – Oklahoma contest, please come out from under your rock and go do some Googling), but many are expecting a very entertaining contest nonetheless. About a month ago, when the championship pairing was first announced, we posted our initial tale of the tape on this game. Right now it is time to take a more in-depth look at the three match-ups which will decide this football game, and thus the national champion via the USA Today Coaches Poll:
Troy Smith vs. Florida Defense
This is, of course, the big one. For Troy Smith, Monday night’s game is the opportunity to come up with the crowning achievement for his college football career. Smith has beaten Michigan three times in a row. He has won the Heisman Trophy. He has obliterated Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. All that’s left for the Ohio State quarterback is to hoist the Sears Trophy as the winner of a national championship. For the Florida defense, it isn’t so much whether or not Smith will put points on the scoreboard (he will), but rather how many and how quickly he will put them up. If the Gators can keep Smith somewhat in check and keep this one from becoming a barn-burner, Florida will be in decent shape. If it becomes a track meet, Ohio State might just run away with it.
Florida Quarterbacks vs. Ohio State Linebackers
Throughout the season, the Gators have used a two-quarterback system with great success. Chris Leak and Tim Tebow have mixed up the looks and kept defenses on their heels. Leak is a run-and-gunner who has a deadly accurate arm, and speed to get outside and rack up the yards if the defense loses track of him. Tebow is a little bit bigger (6′3″, 225 lbs.) and more powerful for use in short yardage and goal-to-go situations. Much has been made throughout the year of coach Urban Meyer’s use of this two-quarterback system. Some have applauded it, while others have criticized it. Either way, it has worked so far for the Gators, and it will be a key Monday night against Ohio State. If the two can continue to interchange effectively and give Florida two different looks against the Buckeyes, it will greatly enhance the effectiveness of the Florida offense. It will be up to the Ohio State linebackers to stay on their toes and keep track of who is on the field at all times so they can adjust their reads and blitzes accordingly.
Florida Running Game vs. Ohio State Front Seven
This is perhaps the most important of the three match-ups we’ve highlighted. I firmly believe that the success (or lack of success) by Florida’s running backs (and their quarterbacks carrying the ball as well) will have a very large effect on the outcome of this football game. If Florida can put together a successful running game, not only does it take some of the pressure of of Leak, but it also allows the Gators to control the ball and the clock. The more successful rushes Florida puts together, the longer the clock runs without the ball being in the hands of the Buckeyes and thus in the hands of Troy Smith. Obviously, anytime that Troy Smith is not on the field is a big plus for the Gators. A successful Florida running game will keep the score of the game lower, and I think that will play into the hands of the Gators. It seems a shootout would greatly favor Ohio State. On the other hand, if the Buckeyes defensive line can stuff the Florida run and force some three-and-out possessions, they will give Smith more opportunities with the football and thus more opportunities to score.
Final Thoughts
This should be one heck of a football game. I say Florida by seven, but only if they get that running game working and working well. If the Gators get stuffed routinely on the run, look for Ohio State to win by 10 or more.
Depending on the status of my internet connection (it’s been shaky at best now that I’m at home instead of at school), I’ll try to be back online after the game tomorrow or on Tuesday with some reactions.
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Just a couple links from the day:
Connecticut Children Headed for Success – Interesting. It seems kids raised and schooled in Connecticut are more likely to be headed for success than children in 48 states. Only West Virginia bested the Nutmeg State. Good news for me, I guess. Of course, I have no idea how they define “success.”
NASA Space Probes in ’70s May Have Killed Life on Mars – Interesting read.
2 Comments
January 8, 2007 at 12:56 am
Ohio State is basically LSU with a mobile, more reliable QB and a weaker defense. Florida defeated LSU 23-10, but both sides of the score should be larger tonight.
There is no SEC analogue for Troy Smith, with Andre Woodson at Kentucky being the closest (but really not at all close). For the OSU wide receivers, you’ve got Florida’s as being roughly equal, and the UF defense has played against that all year. OSU’s O-Line and two-pronged running attack is mirrored in Arkansas, and Florida handled them reasonably well.
The OSU defense has yet to stop a good offense. Their D-Line is similar to LSU’s, and the linebackers most like Ole Miss’ starting three, but the Gators didn’t play the Rebels this year. Of Florida’s opponents, FSU is probably the best fit. As far as the secondary goes, I don’t know, but LSU’s is definitely better.
Florida has played something relatively close or better than everything Ohio State has all year, just not all at once. At the same time, the Gators have faced something better than everything Ohio State has to offer somewhere along the line, with the exception of Troy Smith (though they played Jay Cutler last year and he’s pretty similar).
Can Florida handle every individual part of Ohio State? Absolutely. Can they do it all together? That’s the $14 million question.
January 8, 2007 at 6:56 pm
Nice preview, Janik. I just don’t think Florida will pull out ahead (although I want them to; another Tosu championship will make me very sad). I hope I’m wrong.